Home prices in Calgary are projected to continue climbing into late 2026, driven by persistent demographic inflows, lagging housing starts, and marginally easing borrowing conditions. Despite affordability headwinds and policy uncertainties, the market’s fundamentals remain structurally tilted toward price resilience across all residential segments.

Migration Fuels Demand Across Detached and Multifamily Units

Alberta has led Canada in interprovincial migration since 2023, absorbing more than 55,000 net newcomers in 2024 alone, according to Statistics Canada. Calgary accounts for nearly half of that figure, reinforcing its role as the province’s primary growth engine. This inflow has strained already tight rental markets and pushed detached housing demand to suburban fringes, where supply remains relatively static.

Further pressure stems from a rebound in international student permits and refugee resettlements. While federal caps on temporary resident visas are expected to ease in 2026, their near-term impact remains potent. The result is elevated demand for both rental and ownership housing, especially in transit-adjacent areas.

Mortgage Conditions Stabilize, But Rate Volatility Persists

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 4.25% in July 2025, while signaling the potential for cuts later in the year as inflation moderates below 2.5% (Bank of Canada). Fixed mortgage rates have declined by 30–60 basis points since May, creating modest affordability gains, particularly for insured borrowers.

Nonetheless, borrowing costs remain historically elevated. First-time buyers are increasingly pivoting to condominiums and townhomes, with CREB® noting a sharp shift in sales volume toward those segments in Q2 2025 (CREB June 2025 Update). Price momentum is expected to follow demand, especially as credit conditions slowly ease over the 6–18 month horizon.

Supply Constraints Widen the Demand Imbalance

Housing inventory remains well below long-term norms. As of June 2025, Calgary’s sales-to-inventory ratio sits below 2.0—indicating a strong seller’s market across nearly all product types. New housing starts are failing to keep pace with demand, trailing the city’s projected population growth by 18–22% in the multifamily category.

Townhomes and low-rise multifamily developments are especially undersupplied, driving competitive bidding and elevated price expectations. Detached home construction is heavily concentrated in outer suburbs, where servicing costs and permitting delays further constrain output.

Policy and Infrastructure Remain Long-Term Catalysts

The first phase of Calgary’s Green Line LRT is underway, with significant infrastructure investment projected through 2027. Properties near new transit corridors in the southeast and northwest have already seen a pricing premium emerge, driven by investor speculation and expectations of long-term rental demand.

Meanwhile, Calgary’s push to update municipal zoning laws to favor higher-density housing is underway but unevenly implemented. While the city has approved multiple pilot overlays to allow multiplex construction, approval bottlenecks persist. These policies may offer relief in the long term, but are unlikely to materially impact supply before late 2026.

Segment-Specific Price Forecasts Through Late 2026

Given the interaction of these forces, Calgary residential real estate is forecast to appreciate as follows:

• Detached homes: +4% to +7% year-over-year
• Townhomes/row housing: +6% to +9% year-over-year
• Condominiums: +3% to +5% year-over-year
• Rental rates: +7% to +10% year-over-year

The tightest conditions exist in entry-level and mid-range homes, particularly those within a 30-minute commute radius of downtown and transit nodes.

Risks: Policy Reversals and Energy Price Volatility

Two key downside risks bear watching. First, federal immigration policy adjustments—including limits on international students—may cool the rental segment faster than expected. Second, Calgary remains exposed to global energy price shocks. A sustained correction in oil and gas prices could undermine employment and housing confidence, although the city’s diversification efforts have muted this link in recent years.

---

Sources:

• CREB June 2025 Housing Report
• Bank of Canada July 2025 Rate Decision
• Statistics Canada Interprovincial Migration Q2 2025
• City of Calgary Green Line Project

AI Transparency Note:
This article was prepared with the help of artificial intelligence tools and verified economic data. It does not contain investment advice.